Subjectivity in Risk Analysis

Risk values are arrived at via the process of risk analysis. In many quarters, this is assumed to be objective, and its results the risk values to be correct. Yet, as will be shown in subsequent sections of this report, all stages of the process involve subjectivity, in some cases to a considerable extent. Always there is reliance on judgement, and, as in all cases in which judgement is called for, there can be no guarantee that it will be made to a reasonable approximation, even by an expert. Indeed, it may be and sometimes is made by an inexperienced novice. The need for judgement introduces subjectivity and bias, and therefore uncertainty and the likelihood of inaccuracy. The results obtained by one risk analyst are unlikely to be obtained by others starting with the same information.